Normally when I write this style of article, it generates a lot of controversy.

In this isolated case, I'm not sure how anyone can raise an issue with prediction of a Dan Henderson victory over Anderson Silva this Saturday at UFC 82. Just like I can't raise an issue with someone for picking Silva to beat Henderson.

If this was an NFL game, it would be a pick 'em. It's a matchup with a potential outcome that could go either way. If Silva and Henderson fought ten times, they'd each win five. Blah, blah, blah. You get all the cliche's. But my point is that this is a very even matchup and for anyone planning to do their "I told you so" song and dance after the outcome is official, you need to grow up. This isn't a fight where you'll be able to fault anyone who ended up picking the loser. Instead, you should be giving someone the credit for having the stones to make a pick.

It would be real easy for me or anyone else to recuse ourselves from making a prediction by saying "Oh, this one is just too close to call." But where's the fun in that? So I decided to "man up" last week and take a sobering look at this matchup. My conclusion is that it's Silva's Thai clinch vs. Henderson's Greco Roman body lock.

And I'm taking the body lock.

The key in this match will be who can control the distance. Silva needs to make sure that he keeps Henderson away from him during the initial portion of the fight. If Henderson can close the distance without paying too steep of a price and lock Silva up, then Silva's greatest weapons will be neutralized. Silva needs space to operate.

Yes, there isn't a lot of space in the clinch, and area in which Silva excels at, but he'll need to stay loose during the beginning portion of the match. Trying to crowbar the clinch in against a naturally strong athlete such as Henderson isn't advisable. He's going to need to break Henderson down first before he tries to impose his will and close the distance and in turn go in for the kill.

In regards to Henderson, space will not be his friend. For every step that Silva takes forward, Henderson needs to either take two back or six forward. Meaning, he needs to either stay out of Silva's range, or eliminate it altogether.

Footwork will be essential as that will go a long way towards allowing Henderson to work the dominant angles and control the distance.

We know Henderson has a great right and he proved against Wanderlei Silva last year that his left hook is pretty damn potent as well. However, his striking technique does not come close to rivaling Spider's and engaging in a striking battle for an extended period of time will prove costly.

The good thing about Henderson is that fighting for him isn't about ego. As a former two-time Olympic competitor it's about winning. He doesn't need to beat Silva at his own game in order to feel some sort of satisfaction. As long as he walks with the "W," that will be good enough for him.

Henderson needs to shoot the distance and wrap his arms around the upper portion of Silva's torso, just beneath his arms. He needs to clapse his hands behind Silva's back and hold on for dear life. From there, he needs to put Silva's back up against it, whether it be against the cage or against the canvas. If he puts him against the cage, Henderson will need to utilize his dirty boxing skills. But there's a risk in going the clutch and grab route because the fight will still be standing and Silva, who is also extremely strong, could put himself in a position to respond with an immediate counter-strike.

In spite of Silva's black belt in jiu-jitsu that he received from the Nogueira brothers and his deadly submission game off his back, I still think Henderson's best bet is to go for a trip takedown out of the body lock and take the fight to the floor.

I was watching "Countdown to UFC 82" last night on Spike and started chuckling when Dana White tried to sell everyone on the idea that Silva showed no weakness against Travis Lutter and that he basically dominated the fight. I laughed because he made these comments highlights were shown of Lutter putting Silva on the mat, passing his guard, and throwing blows from the high mount.

White's point was that Silva is such a threat off his back that he was always in a position to win. While playing the bottom in competitive grappling is often a good strategy, it's a risky one when it comes to MMA. White can say all he wants, but what if Silva wasn't successful in his attempt to triangle Lutter?

The notion that Silva is without weakness is ludicrous. He's without question one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world but his wrestling is a major area of weakness and his jiu-jitsu skills do not entirely translate well to MMA. Silva has improved a lot since his days in PRIDE, but he was exposed on the ground on several occasions. And I just happen to believe that Henderson will expose Silva's ground game.

Once Henderson has Silva on his back, he'll need to stack him and lack his elbows against Silva's upper thighs. He must control Silva's legs and prevent him from "climbing." Once Henderson secures position, and I believe he will because that's where his wrestling background will be a tremendous asset, he has to do damage from inside his guard. I don't think trying to improve his position right away is a smart move. He needs to cause some damage before he tries to break free of Silva's guard. If Silva is 100% alert, then Henderson runs the risk of getting caught once he tries to advance because his position will no longer be fully secured.

If Henderson can finish Silva from inside his guard, he will then eventually need to improve his position and try to achieve mount. If he achieves mount, securing position once again will be imperative. Silva is a threat off his back even while mounted as he will have free use of his legs and could possibly attempt to bridge out when Henderson raises up to throw punches. One way to avoid possibly giving up position when throwing strikes from the mount would be to try and utilize short elbows, as it would be a good idea because Henderson will have better weight distribution.

If Silva can't control the distance and gets put on his back, then he will need to control Henderson's wrist and his body. Just like Henderson needs to lock Silva up and eliminate space, Silva needs to keep Henderson tied up in order to limit the momentum he can put behind his punches and elbows.

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Sam Caplan

Lead Writer/Editor - ProElite.com

SamCaplan.ProElite.com