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(2 votes)
Why Cung Le will beat Frank Shamrock (viewed 3,679 times)
(2 votes)
When the possibility of a match between Cung Le vs. Frank Shamrock began to be floated in early 2007 (and really, the two were talked about as possibly fighting each other long before that), my initial reaction was that Shamrock would tear through Le. The thing was, I was only looking at things on the surface and did not analyze things thoroughly.
To me, it was simple: Le is inexperienced in MMA and his ground game was unproven. There's no way he could beat a well-rounded threat such as Frank Shamrock.
But I've done a 180 since then and I think this is Cung Le's fight to lose. He's a dangerous opponent and his athleticism is going to cause Shamrock problems. Le, despite being the slightly older fighter, is simply faster, quicker, stronger, and more dynamic than Shamrock.
The biggest problem in this fight could be Frank Shamrock's ego. He rubs a lot of people the wrong way but I understand what he's about. Some fighters say their job is only to fight and it's the job of the promoter to promote their fight. It's hard to argue with that line of thinking. If I was an athlete, I wouldn't want to have to be distracted by a bunch of business-related drama.
That being said, pro athletes have a limited shelf life when it comes to peak earning potential. An average Joe like you and I in most cases can do what we do until it's time to legally retire. But unless an athlete makes a ton of money, they have to find a new occupation after their athletic peak is over. Shamrock understands that by trying to be promoter in addition to fighter he can maximize his earning potential. I think more fighters should take Frank's lead. It's not right that they have to try and sell their own fights, but trying to be more than just a fighter is in their financial best interest.
So while Frank rubs some people the wrong way, he doesn't rub me the wrong way. The man is a true showman and I appreciate that. But will his ego allow him to fight the right fight?
I ask that question because Shamrock enjoys beating a fighter at his own game. If he fights someone known for their wrestling ability, Shamrock wants to out-wrestle them. If someone is noted for being a good striker, such as Phil Baroni, Frank not only wants to win the fight, but he wants to win the fight on his feet.
Being the showman that he is, I believe Frank is going to want to knock Le out standing in front of a big crowd on hand to witness the Battle of San Jose. And that's simply the wrong strategy.
Shamrock is proud of his striking and believes he has made tremendous strides in that area. It's hard to argue. But Frank made his name in this sport as a submission wrestler. Based on his recent fights, it's easy to forget how highly regarded of a ground fighter he was at one point. If Frank wants to win, his best bet is to get back to his roots and put Le on his back. But as I said earlier, I don't think Shamrock is going to do that.
Before I go any further though, I want to make it clear that I don't consider Le's ground game to be as weak as other pundits. Le is an outstanding athlete and has a wrestling background. Those who say he hasn't had to fight on the ground must not have seen his fights. Le has gone to the ground several times and while he hasn't looked amazing, he hasn't exactly looked terrible either. I believe that Le will only be in trouble in this fight if Shamrock puts him on his back because I don't know whether his jiu-jitsu is good enough for him to have a back game that can pose a threat to someone as experienced as Shamrock.
If Le has top position on Shamrock, I think it's Shamrock who could be in trouble. Again, Le has a wrestling base and is very strong. I don't think he can submit Shamrock from top position, but he could hurt him with some ground and pound.
The more and more I look at this fight, I would not rule out the possibility of it going to the ground at some point. But if it does, I believe it will be Le who tries to take it to the mat. The problem is, it's in Shamrock's best interests to be the one who initiates the decision to go to the ground.
On their feet, I'm not sure Frank can handle Le's ability to strike from the outside. The two used to spar together and both fighters have stated that Le dominated those exchanges. Shamrock has countered that the style of sparring was San Shou as opposed to MMA and that he has gotten much better since then. Well, I believe that Le has also improved. Furthermore, I'm not buying the whole "it was San Shou" argument. Anyone who has seen Le knows that he has successfully incorporated a lot of traditional martial arts into his MMA game and can execute a lot of those strikes very effectively.
When it comes to fighting on the inside, I think Shamrock will have the advantage. He could change the course of the fight if he tries employ a lot of hooks and upper cuts and uses dirty boxing tactics. Le could also be at a huge disadvantage if Shamrock puts his back to the cage. That said, I believe Le can keep a good distance between the two as long as he circles properly and is prepared for what Shamrock might throw at him.
Preparation could be a question. "Could" is the operative word. If you saw the Le vs. Sammy Morgan fight from this past November, you know that Le did not look good. My understanding is that he had a lot going on in his life outside of the cage at the time and did not train all that hard. But do you really think that Le is going to take Shamrock lightly? There's simply too much at stake here and this is a big fight. If a fight vs. Frank Shamrock doesn't get you motivated, what will?
An in shape and prepared Le poses a tremendous danger to Shamrock. If Le utilizes his superior athleticism and controls the range between the two, he will control the fight. If Shamrock takes two steps forward, Le needs to take two steps back and two to the right. He must constantly stay in motion and make Shamrock chase him in order to hit him. Le needs to pick and choose his spots and close the distance whenever he feels he has an opening. Once that opening closes up, he needs to disengage and keep Shamrock away from him.
I believe that the strategy outlined is a winning one and if I know that this is the right way to approach the fight, you've got to think Le has known this for months.
What I see happening is Le staying mobile and throwing a lot of unanswered strikes from the outside. I see him scoring a lot of points with the judges and Shamrock having trouble timing all of his unorthodoxed strikes. Shamrock is right in his assessment that Le's striking is not typical MMA striking but that is to Le's benefit. While they've sparred together in the past and Shamrock has a better understanding of what Le will throw at him than the usual opponent does, I don't think he will be ready to handle everything Le can throw at him while the two are fighting at full speed.
I see this fight ending in the fourth round when Shamrock starts to show signs of fatigue as a result of trying to catch Le so he can hit him. I think Le might take a risk and try to come inside and get caught by Shamrock. From there, I envision Le responding by taking Shamrock off his feet and finishing via ground and pound.
To me, it was simple: Le is inexperienced in MMA and his ground game was unproven. There's no way he could beat a well-rounded threat such as Frank Shamrock.
But I've done a 180 since then and I think this is Cung Le's fight to lose. He's a dangerous opponent and his athleticism is going to cause Shamrock problems. Le, despite being the slightly older fighter, is simply faster, quicker, stronger, and more dynamic than Shamrock.
The biggest problem in this fight could be Frank Shamrock's ego. He rubs a lot of people the wrong way but I understand what he's about. Some fighters say their job is only to fight and it's the job of the promoter to promote their fight. It's hard to argue with that line of thinking. If I was an athlete, I wouldn't want to have to be distracted by a bunch of business-related drama.
That being said, pro athletes have a limited shelf life when it comes to peak earning potential. An average Joe like you and I in most cases can do what we do until it's time to legally retire. But unless an athlete makes a ton of money, they have to find a new occupation after their athletic peak is over. Shamrock understands that by trying to be promoter in addition to fighter he can maximize his earning potential. I think more fighters should take Frank's lead. It's not right that they have to try and sell their own fights, but trying to be more than just a fighter is in their financial best interest.
So while Frank rubs some people the wrong way, he doesn't rub me the wrong way. The man is a true showman and I appreciate that. But will his ego allow him to fight the right fight?
I ask that question because Shamrock enjoys beating a fighter at his own game. If he fights someone known for their wrestling ability, Shamrock wants to out-wrestle them. If someone is noted for being a good striker, such as Phil Baroni, Frank not only wants to win the fight, but he wants to win the fight on his feet.
Being the showman that he is, I believe Frank is going to want to knock Le out standing in front of a big crowd on hand to witness the Battle of San Jose. And that's simply the wrong strategy.
Shamrock is proud of his striking and believes he has made tremendous strides in that area. It's hard to argue. But Frank made his name in this sport as a submission wrestler. Based on his recent fights, it's easy to forget how highly regarded of a ground fighter he was at one point. If Frank wants to win, his best bet is to get back to his roots and put Le on his back. But as I said earlier, I don't think Shamrock is going to do that.
Before I go any further though, I want to make it clear that I don't consider Le's ground game to be as weak as other pundits. Le is an outstanding athlete and has a wrestling background. Those who say he hasn't had to fight on the ground must not have seen his fights. Le has gone to the ground several times and while he hasn't looked amazing, he hasn't exactly looked terrible either. I believe that Le will only be in trouble in this fight if Shamrock puts him on his back because I don't know whether his jiu-jitsu is good enough for him to have a back game that can pose a threat to someone as experienced as Shamrock.
If Le has top position on Shamrock, I think it's Shamrock who could be in trouble. Again, Le has a wrestling base and is very strong. I don't think he can submit Shamrock from top position, but he could hurt him with some ground and pound.
The more and more I look at this fight, I would not rule out the possibility of it going to the ground at some point. But if it does, I believe it will be Le who tries to take it to the mat. The problem is, it's in Shamrock's best interests to be the one who initiates the decision to go to the ground.
On their feet, I'm not sure Frank can handle Le's ability to strike from the outside. The two used to spar together and both fighters have stated that Le dominated those exchanges. Shamrock has countered that the style of sparring was San Shou as opposed to MMA and that he has gotten much better since then. Well, I believe that Le has also improved. Furthermore, I'm not buying the whole "it was San Shou" argument. Anyone who has seen Le knows that he has successfully incorporated a lot of traditional martial arts into his MMA game and can execute a lot of those strikes very effectively.
When it comes to fighting on the inside, I think Shamrock will have the advantage. He could change the course of the fight if he tries employ a lot of hooks and upper cuts and uses dirty boxing tactics. Le could also be at a huge disadvantage if Shamrock puts his back to the cage. That said, I believe Le can keep a good distance between the two as long as he circles properly and is prepared for what Shamrock might throw at him.
Preparation could be a question. "Could" is the operative word. If you saw the Le vs. Sammy Morgan fight from this past November, you know that Le did not look good. My understanding is that he had a lot going on in his life outside of the cage at the time and did not train all that hard. But do you really think that Le is going to take Shamrock lightly? There's simply too much at stake here and this is a big fight. If a fight vs. Frank Shamrock doesn't get you motivated, what will?
An in shape and prepared Le poses a tremendous danger to Shamrock. If Le utilizes his superior athleticism and controls the range between the two, he will control the fight. If Shamrock takes two steps forward, Le needs to take two steps back and two to the right. He must constantly stay in motion and make Shamrock chase him in order to hit him. Le needs to pick and choose his spots and close the distance whenever he feels he has an opening. Once that opening closes up, he needs to disengage and keep Shamrock away from him.
I believe that the strategy outlined is a winning one and if I know that this is the right way to approach the fight, you've got to think Le has known this for months.
What I see happening is Le staying mobile and throwing a lot of unanswered strikes from the outside. I see him scoring a lot of points with the judges and Shamrock having trouble timing all of his unorthodoxed strikes. Shamrock is right in his assessment that Le's striking is not typical MMA striking but that is to Le's benefit. While they've sparred together in the past and Shamrock has a better understanding of what Le will throw at him than the usual opponent does, I don't think he will be ready to handle everything Le can throw at him while the two are fighting at full speed.
I see this fight ending in the fourth round when Shamrock starts to show signs of fatigue as a result of trying to catch Le so he can hit him. I think Le might take a risk and try to come inside and get caught by Shamrock. From there, I envision Le responding by taking Shamrock off his feet and finishing via ground and pound.
--
Sam Caplan
Lead Writer/Editor - ProElite.com