When I first read yesterday's report by Greg Savage of Sherdog.com that stated Fedor Emelianenko has never signed a formal agreement with M-1 Global, I was left with the same reaction as just about everyone else: bewilderment.

And I mean, complete and total bewilderment. You know, the type of feeling you only experience when you wake up in the afternoon following a night of drinking nothing but grain alcohol.

I first read the report while on the phone with a friend and I was caught by the headline on my news reader. I had to take a look and when I did, all I could do was shake my head.

The thing that amazes me is the amount of money that was rumored to have been spent on that initial press conference in New York last October to announce that Sibling Sports had acquired M-1 from Vadim Finkelstein and his partners and had also signed Fedor as its signature star.

According to Savage, Fedor never signed anything more than a letter of intent. How do you conduct such a lavish press conference with nothing more than a signed letter of intent? That would have been like the Yankees sending out a press release and holding a presser at Yankee Stadium to announce they had re-signed Alex Rodriguez even though in reality he had only agreed to a deal in principle.

A deal is not done until all parties have signed a contract.

In light of this news, many people are claiming that Fedor is now officially a free agent. I beg to differ. While a signed letter of intent is not an ironclad contract, it would give Sibling a wobbly leg to stand on if they wanted to press the issue in a United States court of law. Yes, I'm not an attorney and I'm sure an overly-litiguous mind will try and question that statement but save your energy because it's a moot point. Even in spite of a signed letter, the wheels are in motion to try and finalize an agreement that will make Fedor's divorce from Sibling Sports official. Furthermore, it would not be surprising if M-1 assets were returned to Finkelstein and his partners in exchange for some or all of the up front it has received from Sibling.

M-1 Global is not officially dead but it is clearly on its last legs. I just can't envision Sibling trying to regroup and reform an MMA promotion after all it just went through. Finkelstein's vision of M-1 (M-1 Mixfight and or the M-1 Challenge) will continue to exist in Russia and Europe but I do not think it will emerge as the global power that so many people intended M-1 Global to become.

The lesson to be learned here is one we already learned through ill-fated concepts such as the World Fighting Alliance, World Fighter, New Era Fighting, etc., which is that just because you can send out press releases and sign fighters it doesn't mean you're a real promotion. In the case of the WFA, even if you hold a show you aren't a real promotion. A promotion isn't a promotion until it consistently promotes shows on a regular basis, which is why you have to respect Zuffa. If a fighter signs with the UFC or WEC, they know that as long as they show up prepared, they are going to get paid and that the promotion isn't going anywhere.

The other lesson here is that the more you hear about how much money a promotion has behind it, the more you should be concerned. Even if the rumblings you hear about a promotion having major backing is true, in most cases there is no guarantee that they money will be attached to the project forever. Investors that have a lot of money come into contact with large quantities of cash usually because they've made good decisions. Just because an investor can afford to lose tens or hundreds of millions of dollars doesn't mean he or she is prepared to go all the way and just surrender their cash. If an investment is losing money and showing no signs of turning around, they won't hesitate to pull their financing (i.e. the Cage Fury Fighting Championships).

So where does Fedor go from here? I have no doubt that he'll somehow be involved with DREAM and also Finkelstein's vision for Russia and Europe. However, something bigger lies ahead. Finkelstein is soliciting offers from all the major promotions and even the UFC has expressed some interest. The player in all of this that everyone I talk to keeps telling me to watch in the new Affliction/Golden Boy Promotions fight company that could hold its first show in late June.

Unlike some writers, I'm not going to wax poetic and tell you how big of an impact Affliction/Golden Boy will have because didn't we just learn our lesson with M-1 Global? However, according to people I've spoken with, they are making big-time offers to the top unsigned fighters and I'd be shocked if the first show from the new promotion didn't air on HBO. While HBO has not signed a deal with Affliction/Golden Boy, talks have been going on for a long time and I'm willing to guarantee you that HBO will be getting into the MMA business. It's not a question of if, only when and who and I'm betting the house on Golden Boy/Affliction in June.

In addition to having already signed Matt Lindland and being a leading contender to ink Fedor, I've also have heard from multiple reliable sources that the promotion is pursuing Aleksander Emelianenko, Andrei Arlovski, Josh Barnett, and Ben Rothwell. With the way the company will be structured, it is also very possible that Randy Couture and Mark Cuban's HDNet will also be involved.

Based on the names mentioned above, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see where things are headed; Golden Boy/Affliction is going to focus on the heavyweight division. With HBO's potential involvement, that makes a lot of sense considering that the premium cable channel's roots are in boxing with the heavyweight division having long been been the marquee mainstream attraction.

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Sam Caplan

Lead Writer/Editor - ProElite.com

SamCaplan.ProElite.com