(2 votes)
New Year's Eve Weekend Prediction Marathon (viewed 871 times)
This holiday weekend no fewer than 31 fights are scheduled to take place on major shows. While I don't have time to do full previews of UFC 79, the finals of the IFL World Grand Prix, Yarennoka!, and K-1 HERO's Premium Dynamite!, I still decided to sit down and furnish predictions for just about every single advertised fight on the four cards. It was a Herculian task, no doubt, but I want to test myself and see what kind of record I can compile.
I was going to just do predictions for the UFC, IFL, and Yarennoka but then I imagined getting an instant message from Jordan Breen saying "A real man would have also predicted the K-1 fights." So I figured, what the hell, I'll just throw those predictions in too. The goal is to finish with a 23-8 record. Can I do it? I have no idea but it will be fun trying to see if I can.
UFC 79: Nemesis
Georges St. Pierre vs. Matt Hughes for interim UFC welterweight title
I've thought long and hard and can't come up with a reason as to why anyone would think the outcome of the third fight will be any different than the second. A short training camp might not help GSP but it won't be enough to put Hughes over the top.
Prediction: St. Pierre via fourth round TKO.
Chuck Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva
This won't go past the first round. If Silva comes out wanting to brawl, this will be Liddell's fight. However, I think he knows how much is at stake and will fight a more technical fight, just as he did against Mirko Cro Cop in the openweight GP in '06. Silva just has more ways to win.
Prediction: Silva via TKO at 4:11 of round one.
Ryoto Machida vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
I'm amazed that people are counting Sokoudjou out. They counted him out vs. Rogerio, which was understandable. Then they counted him out vs. Arona. Which is also understandable. Machida is good but Arona has a similar defensive style and we know how that one worked out.
Prediction: Sokoudjou via first round TKO.
Melvin Guillard vs. Rich Clementi
Guillard has a ton of potential, but potential only means you haven't done it yet. Clementi is much more professional in his approach to fighting so there's no way I can back Guillard in a fight like this.
Prediction: Clementi via unanimous decision.
Soa Palelei vs. Eddie Sanchez
Palelei is a heavyweight prospect that the UFC is going to look to build up for when they debut in Australia later this year. Sanchez is becoming the UFC's heavyweight version of The Brooklyn Brawler; a guy who you can respect but not expect to win.
Prediction: Palelei via second round submission.
Luis Cane vs. James Irvin
Cane is the second of two heavyweight prospects that will be debuting at UFC 79. He's a perfect 7-0 with none of the fights going the distance. I get the feeling Joe Silva has unearthed another diamond in the rough. While I like Irvin's style, I just think Cane has the higher upside and is the more technical fighter.
Prediction: Cane via first round submission.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Nate Mohr
Gamburyan may not have the prettiest style in the world, but it's effective. He knows how to nullify a fighter's weapons and that will be precisely the situation here.
Prediction: Gamburyan via unanimous decision.
Dean Lister vs. Jordan Radev
Radev has a wrestling background but Lister is more than just submissions, as he's a complete grappler.
Prediction: Lister vs. second round submission.
Roan Carneiro vs. Tony DeSouza
This could be a surprise match between two world class grapplers. It'll be Abu Dhabi in a cage. Carneiro really impressed me against Jon Fitch and while I think DeSouza has better MMA skills, I think Carneiro's slight grappling advantage will prove the difference.
Prediction: Carneiro via split decision.
Mark Bocek vs. Doug Evans
Bocek has better submissions but Evans is more well-rounded. I think his ground skills are good enough where that Bocek won't be able to finish him, leaving Evans to earn some points on the feet.
Prediction: Evans via second round TKO.
IFL World Grand Prix Finals
Wagnney Fabiano vs. L.C. Davis for the IFL featherweight championship
I like Davis a lot and think he's a star in the making. But is he ready to make the jump from prospect to champion? And at 145 lbs., Fabiano is scary!
Prediction: Fabiano via third round submission.
Chris Horodecki vs. Ryan Schultz for the IFL lightweight championship
Much like Horodecki, Schultz started fighting at a young age. He's a pro's pro and that's why I was upset when the IFL's former production company depicting his KO loss to Bart Palaszewski in the manner that they did. In spite of my feelings about Schultz being one of the most underrated fighters in MMA right now, I still have to go with Horodecki. Horodecki already holds a TKO win over Schultz dating back to November of '06, and he's improved a lot since then.
Prediction: Horodecki via second round TKO.
Delson Heleno vs. Jay Hieron for the IFL welterweight championship
Hieron is a very good wrestler that comes into his fights prepared. However, he has his shortcomings. Because of his tremendous grappling ability, Heleno has a higher upside and will force Hieron to try to win the fight standing, which is not his strong suit.
Prediction: Heleno via split decision.
Benji Radach vs. Matt Horwich for the IFL middleweight championship
Horwich is your prototypical Team Quest Northwest fighter who is solid, but not flashy. He'll prove to be tough competition for Radach, but not tough enough as Radach offers more offensively. Look for Radach to pick up his sixth win of the year.
Prediction: Radach via unanimous decision.
Antoine Jaoude vs. Roy Nelson for the IFL heavyweight championship
Jaoude is one of the best grapplers you'll find in the heavyweight division and his standup has shown great strides this year. In my mind, he clearly was the IFL's second best heavyweight to Ben Rothwell this past season.
Prediction: Jaoude via unanimous decision.
Rory Markham vs. Brett Cooper
Cooper is an Los Angeles native who was recently discovered during the IFL's tryouts in LA. He's a name to keep an eye on but if Markham is healthy for this fight, I don't see Cooper having an answer for his power.
Prediction: Markham by first round KO.
Alex Cook vs. Marcello Salazar
This two have already fought with Cook winning via second round TKO in March of '06. I expect more of the same as the IFL looks to put Cook in a position to shine as he'll be a prominent member of Ian Freeman's UK squad in '08.
Prediction: Cook via third round TKO.
Tim Kennedy vs. Elias Rivera
Rivera is only listed as 3-2 because most of his fights have been bare knuckle. He's a tough customer but I don't think he'll prove to be much of a challenge against Kennedy, who will be super motivated coming off his loss to Jason "Mayhem" Miller on Dec. 15.
Prediction: Kennedy via second round TKO.
Yarennoka!
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Hong-man Choi
Let's see, Choi attempts to kick Fedor; Fedor catches kick; Fedor puts Choi on back; Fedor turns Choi's face into hamburger meat. Yep, that's pretty much the plan.
Prediction: Fedor via first round TKO.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Kazuo Misaki
With JZ vs. Aoki off the card, this is now the match I'm not looking forward to most as this match will definitely have top ten middleweight implications. I expect Akiyama to come out focused because the last time he fought on New Year's Eve, he became a national disgrace. His knockout win over Denis Kang in the fall helped his cause, and an impressive win over Misaki would help it further. Misaki is just too inconsistent for my tastes.
Prediction: Akiyama via second round TKO.
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Luis Azeredo
Prior to his decision win over Paul Daley at Cage Rage 19, Azeredo had lost three out of his last four fights. Defeating a one-dimensional striker in Daley is one thing, but getting the job done against a top ten light weight such as Kawajiri is another. For all of his potential, Azeredo has still yet to deliver in my book and I just don't see him getting the win here.
Prediction: Kawajiri via unanimous decision.
Hayato Sakurai vs. Hidehiko Hasegawa
Hasegawa, a veteran of DEEP, is just not on the same level as Sakurai as a fighter. Sakurai has built a more impressive record against tougher competition. This match was made for him to shine.
Prediction: Sakurai via second round TKO.
Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida
It's a solid matchup but I see no reason why the favorite (Melendez) won't come out victorious. His hands will prove to be too much for Ishida.
Prediction: Melendez via unanimous decision
Murilo Bustamante vs. Makoto Takimoto
Bustamante, a former UFC middleweight champ, is one of my all-time favorites. The problem is that he hasn't fought since April and who knows what kind of training he's been getting since the demise of BTT? The thing is, Takimoto is an even bigger mystery to me at this point so I'm going with Busta.
Prediction: Bustamante via unanimous decision.
K-1 HERO's Premium Dynamite!
Kid Yamamoto vs. Rani Yahya
Kid returned to the MMA scene in September after aborting an attempt to win a spot on the Japanese wrestling squad with his eye towards competing at the Bejing Olympics in '08. He recorded a unanimous decision against unheralded Bibiano Fernandes in his return match but the stakes have gone up against Yahya, one of the premier grapplers competing in MMA. This will be a strong test, but one that Yamamoto will pass.
Prediction: Yamamoto via second round TKO.
Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Masakatsu Funaki
This is a match that should have happened a long time ago. While Sakuraba is past his prime, it's been seven years since Funaki fought MMA. I'm not sure what to expect with this one except for a win for Saku.
Prediction: Sakuraba via unanimous decision.
Might Mo vs. Sergei Kharitonov
Mo has lost his last four kickboxing bouts, with his most recent loss coming on Dec. 8 against Paul Slowinski when he lost via second round TKO (due to low kicks). So how does FEG try and build him back up? With an MMA match vs. Kharitonov. I'm not liking Mo's chances.
Prediction: Kharitonov via first round submission.
Joachim Hansen vs. Kazuyuki Miyata
Miyata was a former Olympic wrestler who FEG threw to the wolves soon after he decided to go to MMA. He's fought and lost to the likes of Royler Gracie, Kid Yamamoto, Genki Sudo, and Shaolin. I'm not completely confident in Hellboy here though, as he's 2-4 in his last six fights with his last loss coming against Eiji Mitsuoka on a Shooto card back in November. It's a fight Hansen had no business losing but he's still my pick.
Prediction: Hansen via split decision.
Bob Sapp vs. Bobby Ologun
I'm not even 100% sure this match is happening but it's listed on the MMA Weekly rumors page. This is a total freak show match with a guy who is famous only because he's big vs. a comedian. Sapp has a ton of potential but tends to disappoint. However, I keep reading rumors on the Internet that he's having money problems so maybe he actually bothered preparing for this match? Oh, there's also the fact that he might outweigh Ologun by like 100 pounds.
Prediction: Sapp via second round TKO.
Melvin Manhoef vs. Yosuke Nishijima
Nishijima has never won a match but his four losses have come against Mark Hunt, Phil Baroni, Yoshida, and Cyborg. He'll once again have his work cut out for him against Manhoef, an accomplished striker.
Prediction: Manhoef via second round TKO.
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Zuluzinho
Another freak show match. Minowa's best work has been as a pro wrestler while Zulu is probably best known for submitting to punches against Fedor on New Year's Eve of 2005. I would love to abstain in making a pick here but I think Minowa takes it.
Prediction: Minowa via second round submission.
--
Sam Caplan
Lead Writer/Editor - ProElite.com






